Tallahassee Real Estate Market Outlook- 2015

How does the real estate market look in Tallahassee in 2015?

I got curious about this recently.

In 2012, shortly after moving to Tallahassee, I wrote a blog post about the state of the real estate market at that time. I borrowed heavily from the brilliant work of real estate broker Joe Manausa at Manausa.com.

The picture at that time wasn’t too rosy. In essence the supply of available houses for sale, and the ‘shadow supply’ of houses likely to come on to the market, such as due to looming foreclosures or failed sales being re-listed as things picked up, pushed the ‘relative supply’ of houses for sale, compared with current, ongoing sales being made, out to about 10 months.

6 months is the ‘benchmark’. A supply greater than 6 months and prices are forced down and you have a buyer’s market. Less than 6 then prices start to climb, and you have a seller’s market.

Things have improved considerably in Tallahassee since that time.

I’m going to borrow a graph from Joe’s website. If you click on the graph it will take you to his webpage.

The graph goes from March, 2008 to Dec 2014. The vertical blue bars show the supply, in total months shown on the right, compared with the given dates across the bottom.

The red line shows the active listings. And the blue line shows the evened out trend of the relative supply.

As you can see the supply of available houses for sale has been steadily decreasing. You can also see the fluctuations in sales throughout the year. Sales are down in Nov/Dec, but start to climb leading into summer.

The yellow bar across the middle of the graph is the magic number of 6 months of supply. The plus 10 month supply in Jan of 2012 has reduced down to 6.1 months in December of this last year. And while it’s flattened out somewhat over the last year (compared to the two prior years) the trend is continuing.

Tallahassee is continuing its historic rate of population increase (college kids graduating from FSU or FAMU and entering the market as new home buyers), and housing prices on average have been below ‘pre-bubble’ 2002 prices, adjusted for inflation. These two factors and a somewhat better economy seem to have added up to a steady improvement in the flooding of the market following the sub-prime mortgage crash.

If the trend continues over the next year, it appears likely that the housing market will start to heat up.

Joe does a tremendous job of crunching the numbers for specific neighborhoods in Tallahassee, it’s worth checking out his blog if you want to get an insight into a particular neighborhood.

(This has NOT been a paid endorsement, and Joe Manausa does not necessarily approve of this message. I was just impressed with his website and grasp of the Tallahassee market.)

Wishing you a happy and healthy home,

Mike Wreggitt

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